Newsnomics AJAY ANGELINA reporter |

India, the leading global rice exporter is likely to ban the export of rice by next year 2024.

In this instance, the rice prices which have risen to the highest level in 15 years since 2008, are unexpectedly continue to ascend.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership, has consistently tightened export restrictions to control domestic price inflation and protect Indian consumers.

“As long as India faces upward pressure on rice prices internally, (export) restrictions are likely to remain in place,” said Sonal Varma, chief economist for India and Asia at Nomura Holdings.

“In particular, domestic rice prices will not stabilize even after the election.” “Otherwise, export restrictions could be extended,” she added.

B.V. Krishna Rao, president of the Rice Exporters Association representing Indian shippers, stated that “the government is aiming to ensure sufficient supplies of rice domestically and control price increases, is likely to maintain export restrictions until the upcoming vote.”

India that accounts for 40% of world rice exports, restricted the export of broken rice grains in September last year, and banned the export of non-basmati white rice in July this year without government permission that prohibited the sale of rice on minimum prices.

Joseph Glauber, a senior fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, emphasized the challenges in the rice market, said India leaves "a big hole to fill" as a major supplier.
 
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), rice prices rose 24% last month compared to the same period last year.

The basis for analysts predicting India's export restrictions will be maintained is pointing towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi's bid for a third term, as the general election is scheduled for April-May next year, and probably there will be no change in this goal. The Indian government is prioritizing food security in order to maintain its policy of providing free food services benefiting over 800 million people, with Modi announcing its extension by five years just ahead of five state elections.

On the other hand, the onset phenomenon of El Nino, a climate pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean along the equator and impacts weather all over the world. El Nino typically adversely affects crops in Asia where 90% of the world's rice is grown and eaten, may further tighten the global rice market. 

Thailand, the second-largest rice exporter, anticipates a 6% decline in rice output in 2023-2024 due to dry weather.